Monday, September 20, 2010

Why no one should ever bet on football

This past week is a perfecet example of why my college picks are for entertainment purposes only. Come with me as I relive this journey.

About 2:30 p.m., things were looking terrific for my picks. East Carolina (19 1/2 point dogs) had a six-point lead late third quarter over Virginia Tech. Troy had a solid two-score lead on UAB only laying three and things were off to a strong start.

Then it started to unravel.

In order for the Hokies to beat my cover on ECU, they had to score four unanswered touchdowns to finish the game, a feat that would make even the most reckless gambler think twice about betting on. But they did it, and as soon as I saw that score, I knew my day was about to unravel.

And it did. Troy was leading by five points with 1:09 left and UAB had the ball at its own 1-yard line. Somehow, the Blazers got off the 1 and eventually won the game on a Hail Mary.

Hawaii was looking great to cover 11 1/2 points, staying close to Colorado in the fourth quarter before giving up two bad scores.

Then came USC who, thanks to Lane Kiffin's irresponsible and wanton misuse of the two-point conversion, lost the cover against Minnesota when the Gophers scored a meaningless TD with 11 seconds left in the game.

So, if you're keeping track, that's four games that went south in the final plays.

I was 1-1-1 in my other games, all of which ended in fairly predictable fashion. My loss was SMU, a longshot anyway laying 23 points, and Florida managed to push Tennessee. Stanford embarrassed Wake Forest and could have won by 100 if that was its desire.

I am not explaining all this to justify my 1-5-1 week. I am doing it to show that even when things look like a lock, they're not, so the best bet is not to bet at all.

Soapbox tirade over, I WILL continue to make picks and battle back from this humiliating week.

Other notes from this week:
* Alabama is looking awfully good so far, but the Tide get two straight tests coming up against Arkansas and Florida. I still like Bama to win those, but they have their hands full.

* If Ohio State gets beat in the regular season this year, I would be really surprised. Feel free to book that if you need to for throw-it-my-face purposes, but I'll stick by it.

* If Temple beats Penn State this week (you heard me), the Owls might go undefeated too. Would that make them a better BCS title game contender than Boise? (Again, if you think that's a dumb question, you're not paying attention.)
I'm going to make the Owls win first before I start breaking down the possibilities, but if they do, you can count on all the analysis of its ramifications here.

* At this point, I think it's Denard Robinson's Heisman to lose. Or is it Terrelle Pryor's? Well, at least they play each other.

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