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Start 'spreading' the news, 2010 football is upon us
Everyone has their Arc of the Covenant to seek out.
Mine is solving the great mystery of the Sun Belt Conference.
George O’Gorman gets on me every year because I pick teams like Louisiana-Monroe and Troy, but I just can’t stay away from them.
When they ask a mountain climber, “Why do you climb mountains?”
Inevitably the answer is, “Because they’re there.”
Same thing with the Sun Belt. I’m going to crack the code one day, and I may have found my decoder ring for 2010.
Middle Tennessee State.
In case you didn’t know, the Blue Raiders were the one and only team to have 10 spread wins last year, matching their actual on-field mark at 10-3. They have plenty of players back and could be a dominant team in the league.
On opening night, MTSU is favored by 4 ½ against Big Ten foe Minnesota. Favored against the Big Ten? Good luck to the rest of the Sun Belt.
While I’ll never leave the Sun Belt alone, I’ll be watching the rest of the country as well in an attempt to get my handicapping back above water. The last three years spent away from college football’s yellow sun – The South – have left me treading right around .500. OK, just below .500, but very close to it.
I always find teams to latch on to, and one team I always tout but never come back to enough is Iowa.
The Hawkeyes were the second-best team against the spread in the last decade with a .605 mark. Most people don’t think of Iowa as a top spread team, and they often get lost in the Big Ten shuffle. But The Hawks have several qualities that make them ideal against the number: consistently solid talent, a weak lower half of the league and a firm spot under the radar.
Iowa always seems to throw up a clunker early in the year against Iowa State or Northern Iowa, and it’s almost like handicappers completely shut down any respect they had for the Hawks for the rest of the year. Iowa then goes on to play well and rarely has to lay big points. The Hawkeyes were 4-0 as an away dog last year and were 19-11-1 over the last decade in that spot, so they handle business.
Iowa’s mark is more impressive when you consider that it went 2-10 in 2006 and still has a terrific record overall.
This year, their defense has eight starters back from a unit that yielded 15.4 ppg last year, so I like their chances to be competitive again.
Other things to ponder as the handicapping season begins:
* Rarely does the first game of the season carry so much weight, but what a ball game Boise State against Virginia Tech is going to be. Boise comes in as a 2 1/2 –point favorite even though it is playing at Redskins Park a long way from Potato Country.
The Broncos are the spread champion from the last decade with an amazing .630 mark, and that has included a 37-25-2 record away or at neutral sites.
At the same time, Virginia Tech is the seventh best team against the number over the 2000s (.564), and the Hokies look strong again this season.
When you also throw in the fact that Boise is 4-4-1 over the last five years against BCS conference teams on green fields, it makes for a tough handicap. Stay tuned for my pick on this one later this week.
* Houston is going to have one of the great offenses of all time this year behind Case Keenum, but can the Cougars cover spreads? They have historically not lately (.440 in the 2000s) and their defense gave up 30.1 ppg last year.
Two words, baby: over/under.
Their numbers will be set high all season, but like my Pops always says, if you take the over, you’re never out of it.
I also like Mississippi State and Arkansas out of the SEC to make some noise as solid over/under picks through the season. It’s definitely worth tracking to see if it pans out.
* Alabama, rated No. 1 by seemingly everyone including Penthouse (so I heard), went 9-4 against the number last year despite being favored in every game but one. It will probably be tougher sledding this year with the respect factor at a Bear Bryant-like high.
* Don’t sleep on Temple. The Owls were 8-2 against the spread last year before dropping their last two, and they are poised to be strong this year behind (Heisman contender?) Bernard Pierce. Temple will still have some residual sludge on its spreads because, you know, it’s Temple, and sometimes it takes handicappers a while to accept a bad team getting better. (Remember Rutgers in 2006 … 11-2 vs. the number.)
This will be a fun year to handicap. Happy numbering. See you out there.
- Matthew Osborne
Mine is solving the great mystery of the Sun Belt Conference.
George O’Gorman gets on me every year because I pick teams like Louisiana-Monroe and Troy, but I just can’t stay away from them.
When they ask a mountain climber, “Why do you climb mountains?”
Inevitably the answer is, “Because they’re there.”
Same thing with the Sun Belt. I’m going to crack the code one day, and I may have found my decoder ring for 2010.
Middle Tennessee State.
In case you didn’t know, the Blue Raiders were the one and only team to have 10 spread wins last year, matching their actual on-field mark at 10-3. They have plenty of players back and could be a dominant team in the league.
On opening night, MTSU is favored by 4 ½ against Big Ten foe Minnesota. Favored against the Big Ten? Good luck to the rest of the Sun Belt.
While I’ll never leave the Sun Belt alone, I’ll be watching the rest of the country as well in an attempt to get my handicapping back above water. The last three years spent away from college football’s yellow sun – The South – have left me treading right around .500. OK, just below .500, but very close to it.
I always find teams to latch on to, and one team I always tout but never come back to enough is Iowa.
The Hawkeyes were the second-best team against the spread in the last decade with a .605 mark. Most people don’t think of Iowa as a top spread team, and they often get lost in the Big Ten shuffle. But The Hawks have several qualities that make them ideal against the number: consistently solid talent, a weak lower half of the league and a firm spot under the radar.
Iowa always seems to throw up a clunker early in the year against Iowa State or Northern Iowa, and it’s almost like handicappers completely shut down any respect they had for the Hawks for the rest of the year. Iowa then goes on to play well and rarely has to lay big points. The Hawkeyes were 4-0 as an away dog last year and were 19-11-1 over the last decade in that spot, so they handle business.
Iowa’s mark is more impressive when you consider that it went 2-10 in 2006 and still has a terrific record overall.
This year, their defense has eight starters back from a unit that yielded 15.4 ppg last year, so I like their chances to be competitive again.
Other things to ponder as the handicapping season begins:
* Rarely does the first game of the season carry so much weight, but what a ball game Boise State against Virginia Tech is going to be. Boise comes in as a 2 1/2 –point favorite even though it is playing at Redskins Park a long way from Potato Country.
The Broncos are the spread champion from the last decade with an amazing .630 mark, and that has included a 37-25-2 record away or at neutral sites.
At the same time, Virginia Tech is the seventh best team against the number over the 2000s (.564), and the Hokies look strong again this season.
When you also throw in the fact that Boise is 4-4-1 over the last five years against BCS conference teams on green fields, it makes for a tough handicap. Stay tuned for my pick on this one later this week.
* Houston is going to have one of the great offenses of all time this year behind Case Keenum, but can the Cougars cover spreads? They have historically not lately (.440 in the 2000s) and their defense gave up 30.1 ppg last year.
Two words, baby: over/under.
Their numbers will be set high all season, but like my Pops always says, if you take the over, you’re never out of it.
I also like Mississippi State and Arkansas out of the SEC to make some noise as solid over/under picks through the season. It’s definitely worth tracking to see if it pans out.
* Alabama, rated No. 1 by seemingly everyone including Penthouse (so I heard), went 9-4 against the number last year despite being favored in every game but one. It will probably be tougher sledding this year with the respect factor at a Bear Bryant-like high.
* Don’t sleep on Temple. The Owls were 8-2 against the spread last year before dropping their last two, and they are poised to be strong this year behind (Heisman contender?) Bernard Pierce. Temple will still have some residual sludge on its spreads because, you know, it’s Temple, and sometimes it takes handicappers a while to accept a bad team getting better. (Remember Rutgers in 2006 … 11-2 vs. the number.)
This will be a fun year to handicap. Happy numbering. See you out there.
- Matthew Osborne
posted by Trentonian U at
9:05 AM
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